In historiography, a common idea is that we should describe and explain the past in its own terms. People have had different beliefs, values, and problems to be solved, and the social and cultural dynamics surrounding them have been different – not to mention the material realities of the past. We should not expect that […]
Squeezing Water out of Stones. On Historical Counterfactuals
When I was around 14, my math teacher T. M. always accused me of excessive speculation. I decided that I would learn everything there is to be learned about the art of speculation. I went to the library and starter to read Tetlock and Belkin’s Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics in order to counter […]
But Something Is Happening and You Don’t Know What It Is, Do You, History of Knowledge?
In this post, I discuss the historiography of knowledge. I analyze tensions within the field and attempt to understand why we should to care about the foundations of the field. —– History of Knowledge is here. The authorities are still checking the identity of the settler. Is it someone’s sibling or cousin? Is it someone’s […]
Understanding Explanation and Its Relevance for the Future
In this post, I discuss how philosophy of historiography helps us to understand the estimating of futures. More specifically, by focusing on my forthcoming publication, I discuss why we need a philosophical account of historiographical explanation to understand the use of historiography in scenario-work. Soon, my paper “What Should We Require from an Account of […]
Thinking through Historical Cases
In this post, I discuss problems that are associated with case studies in the philosophy of science and possible solutions to the problems. I also discuss the relevance of the problems to our thinking about science and future. Preliminary note on methodology Before going any further, we need to notice that the notion of “case […]
Meme: ‘An Age-Old Argument’. The Necessity of Explanatory Power
I have come across the following picture many times. The picture involves a historical argument: There have always been explanation-seeking questions that appeared to refute a theory. Yet, the theory turned out to be successful. Conclusion: We can ignore certain explanation-seeking questions that appear to refute current beliefs. Despite the good intentions, the argument is […]
Understanding Errors. The Role of Mistakes in History and Future
In this post, I discuss what we can infer about the relative epistemic merits of scenario-work from the failures to formulate correct scenarios of the future. I argue that these failures are not qualitatively different from failures in other disciplines. Rather, the difference is in the way that the epistemic commitments become apparent and can […]
How I Left the World behind and Fell in Love with Counterfactuals. A Counterfactual Account of Testing Philosophical Theories of Science
At least since Kuhn, the changing nature of science has become evident. The idea that “all of the concepts we use to discuss science are in constant flux” (Pitt 2001, 381) can be called Heraclitianism (following Bolinska & Martin 2019). The lesson (from historians of science) is that science has taken (sometimes radically) different forms […]
Rational Reconstructions from History to Future
Imre Lakatos (1922-1974) famously argued that we should make the history of science understandable by rationally reconstructing it. We have to formulate normative “methodologies” of science, i.e. accounts that tell how science should proceed in gathering and organizing its knowledge (e.g. inductivism, conventionalism, falsicationism, methodology of research programs), and produce historiographies of science that explain […]
Theoretical-Structural Taxonomies in History and Future
In this post, I discuss the similarities and differences between historiography and futures studies on the basis of David J. Staley’s book History and Future. I also sketch a structural-taxonomical approach to the possible futures. It is one thing to say that our knowledge of the past is necessary for our knowledge of future, but […]