Performativity in Science. The Rise and Fall of the Black-Scholes model

The Black-Scholes model provides a nice case study of performativity in financial markets. Performativity, as a notion, refers to how economic models and theories can shape the markets they aim to describe, influencing behavior and, in turn, the dynamics of the market itself. This post will discuss the rise and fall of the Black-Scholes model, […]

Everything You Need to Know About Historical Counterfactuals

1. Introduction “Had Eddington lost his faith in humanity, the (amount of) gravitational deflection would not have been observed”. This statement is about events that did not happen. The antecedent is against the facts – it is counterfactual. The whole statement is a counterfactual conditional that describes how things would have gone, had something gone […]

Scientific Realism, Antirealism, and the Future

Introduction The scientific realism debate is one of the main debates in the philosophy of science. The issue is old, and sometimes it seems difficult even to tell how to distinguish between realism and antirealism. In a relatively new area of debate, there have been attempts to resolve this stalemate by analyzing whether the positions […]

Unpredicatibility of the Future of Science. Against the Received Wisdow

What should we do in science? This is a question about pursuitworthiness of research programs. The question concerns which research programs we should develop further, i.e. which programs are worthy of pursuit. Analyses of pursuitworthiness are motivated by the need for an ability to respond to possible future changes and demands. These changes and demands […]

The Notions of Possibility in Futures Research. One way to think about it

In order to understand futures research, it is necessary to have different notions of possibility at hand. In what follows, I identify different notions of possibility and explain what I mean by them and why I think they deserve to be identified. In other words, I provide one way to understand different notions of possibility. […]

When Is One Explanation Better than Another in Historiography?

It is often the case that, in historiography, we have two explanations for some outcome, and we wish to know when one is better than the other. We assume here that both explanations are true in the sense that they explain. Consider the following explanations: E1: Eddington observed gravitational deflection in 1919 because Einstein formulated […]